Category Archives: Science

Culture, Government, Science

Meaningless Numbers

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With the Chinese Virus pandemic raging around the world, the media reports minute by minute the number of cases and the number of deaths.

These numbers sound alarming but they are meaningless.

I’ve discussed this with a friend of mine and we both observed that the number of cases increases in proportion to the the number of tests for the virus. This is because they are limiting testing to people who present with SYMPTOMS of the virus. What does this mean? People who have SYMPTOMS of the virus will probably test positive for the virus. The good news from the meaningless numbers is that the number of deaths is dropping in percentage to the number of those infected. The mortality rate as of 4pm on 3/25/202 was 1.35%.

Okay so back to the meaningless part of the numbers. If the number of cases tracks with number of tests (which is an OBVIOUS result) cases EXPONENTIALLY GROW because the testing is EXPONENTIALLY INCREASING (once again OBVIOUSLY). The problem is that the news and many politicians are basing their predictions of DISASTER on this rate of increasing cases. If you work with the meaningless numbers in this manner you will end up with PREDICTED numbers that are RIDICULOUSLY TOO HIGH.

Another problem with the media numbers is that we have no idea how many people may or may not be infected who are ASYMPTOMATIC. There may be a huge well of the virus in the general population with ASYMPTOMATIC individuals. At this point we have no idea if this is the case because we are NOT testing ASYMPTOMIC people AT ALL.

WITHOUT the numbers for ASYMPTOMATIC people we have NO IDEA HOW CONTAGIOUS this disease is.  We also don’t know the best measures to take to prevent the SPREAD

WITHOUT all the numbers we have NO IDEA what the MORTALITY RATE is.

Yet another number that is missing is HOW MANY people who test positive REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION? For the NUMBERS to have any MEANING we need to know how many people have mild or even severe symptoms but do not require hospitalization and recover at home.

With those that REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION HOW MANY REQUIRE LIFE SUPPORT? I keep hearing about the shortage of VENTILATORS yet no one is showing a case of WHY this is a problem. On top of that IF we actually need the TENS OF THOUSANDS of VENTILATORS we DON’T have enough medical personnel to run all of the machines. I haven’t heard anyone screaming about that fact, only that there aren’t enough machines.

The other term that keeps getting thrown around is “Flattening the curve“. In and of itself that is not a bad idea because of limited medical resources. Interestingly what the term IMPLIES is that the SAME number of people WILL DIE no matter what measures we take. We’re just spreading the DEATHS out over time.

WONDERFUL NEWS.

Fake News, Government, Science

Not The Whole Story? Something Sounds Fishy

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China has a VIRUS that is spreading in the city of Wuhan. So far as of today (1-25-2020) there are reported to have been 56 deaths and and 1975 known cases.  The story is that the disease originated in the FISH MARKET.

What’s FISHY (bad pun intended) about all of this is that the Chinese government is treating this like a plague that may possibly wipe out huge swaths of the population. The government has locked down travel in and out of the city of Wuhan. They are building TWO emergency hospitals to house thousands of people. Reporting says that 14,000 hazmat suits and 110,000 pairs of gloves have been sent to the city. Just now the Chinese government has CANCELED (prohibited) all Lunar New Years celebration across ALL OF MAINLAND CHINA!  ALL major tourist attractions across China have been closed, INDEFINITELY.  This sort of response seems suspiciously EXCESSIVE for LESS than 2000 cases.

Just to give an idea of the number of deaths from ONE common disease, in the US about 50,000 people DIE from the FLU EVERY YEAR and we don’t build special hospitals or allocate thousands of hazmat suits. In the 2017-2018 flu season between 80,000 to 100,000 people died and nothing extraordinary was done other than to issue some warnings about washing your hands and getting the flu shot.

The type of response by the Chinese government seems much TOO LARGE for so few cases.

Perhaps WE’RE NOT GETTING THE WHOLE STORY.

There is some sparse reporting that the VIRUS may have come from a breach in the WUHAN INSTITUTE OF VIROLOGY which is rumored to actually be a BIOWEAPONS FACILITY.

Makes you wonder if the Chinese government isn’t telling an accurate story. Nah, what reason would they have to LIE?

Culture, Government, Science, Technology

You Think We Can Go To Mars?

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NASA and the President talk about landing men on Mars.

I say that it won’t happen.

When the leadership in our country is worrying about renaming “Manholes” to “Maintenanceholes” because any word with “Man” in it is offensive to all of the 97 made up genders, there is NO way that we could come together to put men on Mars.

Additionally when the government leadership celebrates passing laws that prohibit a veterinarian from DECLAWING A CAT and that same leadership also celebrates passing laws allowing doctors to terminate a human baby’s life right up to the moment of birth, I somehow doubt we have the wherewithal to put together a program to land men on Mars.

Oh yeah, unlike John F. Kennedy who declared in 1961 “...of landing a MAN on the moon…“, we would today spend all of our time and money arguing about the gender declaration that would land on Mars.

Men are from Mars, women are from Venus, and the other 95 genders are from Uranus.  Mars,  it ain’t gonna happen.