Continued from yesterday’s posting.
Let’s look at what the Australian Buyback achieved.
If weapons were outlawed and collected in 1996 we should immediately see a reduction in homicides by firearms in 1997. Right?
Here’s the data
As you can see firearms homicide rate didn’t change in 1997 after the restrictions went into effect. The big spike labeled “Port Arthur” is the event in Tasmania which spurred the “buyback”. The authors of the study conclude, “The graph suggests that the Port Arthur Incident was an isolated event with no impact on the longterm behaviour of firearm-related homicide“. Hmmmm? I imagine you feel much safer with the FACT that firearms homicides went, well unchanged. The authors go on to say that firearm homicides showed a “weak downward trend” PRIOR to the “buyback” Further they say, “This raises the issue as to whether more recent behaviour is part of a longterm cycle rather than being the result of short-term influences“. In simpler terms,
“Oops, perhaps banning guns doesn’t have any appreciable effect.”
Let’s put this in a broader perspective. What effect did taking away guns do to homicide rate in general?
Here’s more data
Do you see a large reduction in 1997? The overall homicide rate was unchanged immediately after the ban, as expected. Four years after the “buyback”, in 2001, there was a huge uptick in homicides. Feel safer now? The graph indicates that there has been a downward trend in homicides both before and after the ban, which means that there is NO CONCLUSIVE correlation between the homicide rate and the gun buyback. As in the US, there are more homicides with knives than with firearms. There are also more homicides by bludgeoning than with the use of firearms. Always has been the case.
Let’s look at another and the LARGEST class of firearms related deaths, suicide. Let me state that suicide is a tragedy. I’m not making light of it here. Personally I have known four friends that killed themselves with firearms. The unfortunate fact is that suicide is the MAJORITY of firearms deaths. In the US most firearms related deaths are suicides. In Australia, firearms suicides make up an even greater percentage of firearms deaths than the US.
Here’s more data from Australia
The suicide rate is has shown a steady increase in the past 10 years. There are news headlines that suicides were at their highest rate. And what happened right after the “buyback” to the suicide rate?
There was a slight decline in firearms related suicides, BUT overall suicides SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. Firearm suicides, just like homicides, were on a downward trend prior to the “buyback”, while the overall rate was increasing. Tell me again how lives were saved by the “buyback”?
The researchers behind the data seem reluctant to explain what happened. The report waffles and says, “… there may be evidence
of substitution in means used to commit suicide“. WTF? “There MAY be evidence”? That deserves a “No shit, Sherlock“. Increasing of deaths by other means is ignored because it doesn’t fit the “good news” narrative of the effect of banning firearms. Once more, how many lives have been saved?
Let’s look at one more FACT. Armed robberies. Obviously, “common sense” says we should see a decline in armed robberies once firearms are confiscated, right? Well that’s wrong.
And yet more data
There was a downward trend in firearms used in robberies PRIOR to and continuing downward after the “buyback”. Tell me again how the buyback helped? Well the bad news is that ARMED ROBBERIES INCREASED after the “buyback”. Armed robberies were on an upward trend after the “buyback”. Do you feel safer without those evil firearms?
The liberal left touts that Australia hasn’t had a “mass shooting” since the great confiscation. That’s actually not true. There were at least 4 that I can find since the ban. What if we look at “mass homicides” after the ban? The numbers stay ugly. We have all sorts of mass homicides. Killing by knives, bludgeonings with blunt objects, and a new form, mass homicide by arson. There were many “mass homicides” by burning down buildings with occupants inside, post “buyback”. And then we have the terrorist who drove a vehicle into a mall last year killing 6 and injuring more than 30 others. All this after the “buyback”. Feel safer when you can’t fight back?
The unfortunate reality is that “Common sense” in liberal-speak means, “Ignore the FACTS”.
The following were used as reference for this entry. You can click on the links if you want to read them for yourself.
tandi116 No. 116, “Firearm-related Violence: The Impact of the Nationwide Agreement on Firearms”, Jenny Mouzos; Australia Institute of Criminology
sr002 AIC reports Statistical report 02, “Homicide in Australia 2012–13 to 2013–14: National Homicide Monitoring Program report”, Willow Bryant and Samantha Bricknell; Australia Institute of Criminology