With the **Chinese Virus pandemic** raging around the world, the media reports minute by minute the number of** cases** and the number of** deaths**.

These numbers sound alarming but **they are meaningless**.

I’ve discussed this with a friend of mine and we both observed that **the number of cases increases in proportion to the the number of tests** for the virus. This is because they are limiting testing to people who **present with SYMPTOMS** of the virus. What does this mean? **People who have SYMPTOMS of the virus will probably test positive for the virus**. The good news from the meaningless numbers is that the number of deaths is dropping in percentage to the number of those infected. The mortality rate as of 4pm on 3/25/202 was 1.35%.

Okay so back to the meaningless part of the numbers. If the number of **cases tracks with** number of **tests** (which is an **OBVIOUS** result) **cases EXPONENTIALLY GROW because the testing is EXPONENTIALLY INCREASING** (once again OBVIOUSLY). The problem is that the news and many politicians are basing their predictions of **DISASTER** on this rate of increasing cases. If you work with the meaningless numbers in this manner you will end up with **PREDICTED numbers that are RIDICULOUSLY TOO HIGH**.

Another problem with the media numbers is that we have no idea how many people may or may not be infected who are **ASYMPTOMATIC**. There may be **a huge well of the virus** in the general population with **ASYMPTOMATIC** individuals. At this point we have no idea if this is the case because **we are NOT testing ASYMPTOMIC people AT ALL**.

**WITHOUT** the numbers for **ASYMPTOMATIC** people we have **NO IDEA HOW CONTAGIOUS** this disease is. We also don’t know the best measures to take **to prevent the SPREAD**

**WITHOUT** all the numbers we have **NO IDEA what the MORTALITY RATE** is.

Yet another number that is missing is **HOW MANY people who test positive REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION?** For the **NUMBERS** to have any **MEANING** we need to know how many people have mild or even severe symptoms but do not require hospitalization and recover at home.

With those that **REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION HOW MANY REQUIRE LIFE SUPPORT?** I keep hearing about the shortage of **VENTILATORS** yet no one is showing a case of **WHY** this is a problem. On top of that **IF** we actually need the **TENS OF THOUSANDS of VENTILATORS** we **DON’T have enough medical personnel** to run all of the machines. I haven’t heard anyone screaming about that fact, only that there aren’t enough machines.

The other term that keeps getting thrown around is “* Flattening the curve*“. In and of itself that is not a bad idea because of limited medical resources. Interestingly

**what the term IMPLIES**is that

**the SAME number of people WILL DIE no matter what measures we take**. We’re just

**spreading the DEATHS out over time**.

**WONDERFUL NEWS**.